Prediction and Analysis of the Probability of Climate Change and Water Scarcity in Yazd

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

• mohammadreza Goodarzi ¹
• Maryam Sabaghzadeh ²

¹ Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Faulty of Engineering, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

² Department of Civil Engineering, Water Resources Management Engineering, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran.

10.22067/jfcei.2024.88585.1306

Abstract

Yazd, a city historically challenged by a hot and dry climate, has long faced water scarcity issues. Regional managers have consistently sought various methods to secure the necessary water supply. This study examines the situation by defining a water scarcity index based on water supply and demand over the past 12 years and forecasting it for the next 20 years using the LSTM method. According to the results, water consumption is higher in the summer compared to other seasons. Consequently, the impact of climate change on water scarcity was investigated. Future temperature and precipitation were predicted using the HadGEM3-GC31-LL climate model under three scenarios: SSP126 (optimistic), SSP245 (moderate), and SSP585 (pessimistic). Subsequently, 81 different scenarios were developed considering variations in temperature, precipitation, and water scarcity, with the probability of each occurring calculated using conditional probability. The results indicate that despite the increase in annual forecasted precipitation by up to 77% in the optimistic scenario and over 90% in the other two scenarios, the likelihood of severe water scarcity in the future will be higher. Therefore, regional decision-makers must continually seek ways to reduce consumption and enhance water supply.

Keywords

• climate change
• Water Shortage Index
• LSTM
• Conditional probability

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