پیش‌بینی و تحلیل احتمال وقوع تغییرات اقلیمی و کمبود آب در یزد

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• محمدرضا گودرزی
• مریم صباغ زاده

مدیریت منابع آب، گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران

10.22067/jfcei.2024.88585.1306

چکیده

شهر یزد از دیرباز به دلیل اقلیم گرم و خشک با مشکل کم‌آبی مواجه بوده است و همواره مدیران منطقه تلاش کرده‌اند از طرق مختلف آب مورد نیاز را تامین کنند. این مطالعه با تعریف شاخص کمبود آب بر اساس عرضه و تقاضای آب در 12 سال گذشته و پیش‌بینی آن برای 20 سال آینده با استفاده از روش LSTM به بررسی این موضوع پرداخته است.با توجه به نتایج، در فصل تابستان میزان مصرف آب بیشتر از سایر فصول بود. لذا به بررسی اثر تغییرات آب و هوا بر روی کمبود آب پرداخته شد. بدین منظور دما و بارش آینده با مدل اقلیمی HadGEM3-GC31-LL و با سه سناریوی SSP126، SSP245 و SSP585 که به ترتیب سناریوهای خوش بینانه، متوسط و بدبینانه هستند، پیش‌بینی گردید. سپس، 81 حالت مختلف با توجه به تغییرات دما، بارش و کمبود آب تدوین شده و احتمال وقوع هرکدام با استفاده از احتمال شرطی محاسبه گردید. نتایج نشان داد که با وجود پیش‌بینی افزایش بارش سالانه تا 77% در سناریوی خوش بینانه و تا بیش از 90% در دو سناریوی دیگر، در آینده احتمال وقوع کم‌آبی شدید بیشتر خواهد بود. لذا تصمیم گیرندگان این منطقه همواره باید به فکر راه‌هایی جهت کاهش مصرف و افزایش تامین آب باشند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• شاخص کمبود آب
• تغییراقلیم
• LSTM
• احتمال شرطی

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عنوان مقاله [English]

Prediction and Analysis of the Probability of Climate Change and Water Scarcity in Yazd

نویسندگان [English]

• mohammadreza Goodarzi
• Maryam Sabaghzadeh

Department of Civil Engineering, Water Resources Management Engineering, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Yazd, a city historically challenged by a hot and dry climate, has long faced water scarcity issues. Regional managers have consistently sought various methods to secure the necessary water supply. This study examines the situation by defining a water scarcity index based on water supply and demand over the past 12 years and forecasting it for the next 20 years using the LSTM method. According to the results, water consumption is higher in the summer compared to other seasons. Consequently, the impact of climate change on water scarcity was investigated. Future temperature and precipitation were predicted using the HadGEM3-GC31-LL climate model under three scenarios: SSP126 (optimistic), SSP245 (moderate), and SSP585 (pessimistic). Subsequently, 81 different scenarios were developed considering variations in temperature, precipitation, and water scarcity, with the probability of each occurring calculated using conditional probability. The results indicate that despite the increase in annual forecasted precipitation by up to 77% in the optimistic scenario and over 90% in the other two scenarios, the likelihood of severe water scarcity in the future will be higher. Therefore, regional decision-makers must continually seek ways to reduce consumption and enhance water supply.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• climate change
• Water Shortage Index
• LSTM
• Conditional probability

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