ارزیابی اثرات فضایی عوامل تأثیرگذار محیطی بر فراوانی تصادفات درون شهری شیراز به روش بیز فضایی مبتنی بر فاصله اقلیدسی و همجواری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

محمد صدیق باور ¹

علی نادران ²

محمود صفارزاده ³

¹ گروه تخصصی عمران راه و ترابری و حمل و نقل، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

² برنامه ریزی و مهندسی حمل و نقل، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.

³ دانشکده مهندسی عمران و محیط زیست، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

10.22067/jfcei.2023.80940.1213

چکیده

عوامل محیطی ساخته شده یکی از مهمترین علت­های تصادفات درون شهری است. در این مطالعات نشان داده است که علاوه بر داده­های تصادف که دارای ناهمگونی فضایی هستند عوامل تأثیرگذار در تصادف نیز دارای همبستگی فضایی هستند. هدف اصلی این مطالعه ارزیابی اثرات فضایی عوامل تأثیرگذار محیطی بر فراوانی تصادفات درون شهری شهر شیراز، ایران در سطح هر ناحیه ترافیکی می­باشد. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد مدل­های مبتنی بر فاصله و همجواری به منظور ارزیابی اثرات فضایی داده­های تصادف و عوامل مؤثر بر آن در سطح هر ناحیه ترافیکی از دقت بیشتری نسبت به مدل­های رگرسیون وزن‌دار جغرافیایی برخوردار هستند. همچنین شاخص­های تنوع کاربری اراضی و دسترسی به سیستم حمل و نقل عمومی تولید شده در گام اول در افزایش فراوانی تصادفات تأثیرگذار است و در هر ناحیه ترافیکی‌هایی که میزان این شاخص بالا باشد، احتمال رخداد تصادف بالاتری وجود دارد. در هیچ یک از مطالعات قبلی اثر توأمان عوامل محیطی تأثیرگذار دسته‌ای در برآورد فراوانی تصادفات درون شهری همچنین مقایسه بین مدل­های آمار فضایی مبتنی بر ماتریس وزن‌دار جغرافیایی و مبتنی بر فاصله همجواری با رویکرد بیزی انجام نشده است؛ بنابراین لازم است در تصادفات درون شهری بررسی گردد. نتایج این مطالعه می­تواند به منظور بهسازی اقدامات ایمنی درون شهری و همچنین برنامه‌ریزی توسعه و اقدامات آینده شهری برای مدیران و برنامه‌ریزان شهری حائز اهمیت باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عوامل محیطی

تصادفات درون شهری

اثر فضایی مبتنی بر همجواری

اثر فضایی مبتنی بر ماتریس فاصله

بیز فضایی

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عنوان مقاله English

Evaluating the Spatial Impacts of Environmental Factors on the Frequency of Urban Crashes using the Spatial Bayes Method based on Euclidean Distance and Contiguity

نویسندگان English

mohammad sedigh bavar ¹

ali naderan ²

Mahmoud Saffarzadeh ³

¹ Department of Civil Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

² . Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

³ Faculty of Civil Engineering and Environment, Tarbiat Modares University,tehran,iran

چکیده English

The occurrence of urban accidents depends on many human and environmental factors, so identifying the important factors influencing accidents and their spatial effects on each other is of great importance. The main goal of this study is to evaluate the spatial effects of environmental factors on the frequency of accidents in the city of Shiraz, Iran at the TAZ level. In the first step of the study, using component analysis models, important environmental factors affecting the accident were identified and composite indicators were produced as independent variables. In the second step, in order to control the effect of correlation and heterogeneity of model variables, spatial statistical models based on Euclidean distance such as geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR), geographically weighted negative binomial distribution (GWNBR) as well as Poisson and distribution models Negative binomial based on neighbor distance is used in spatial Bayes method with INLA approach. The results of the study showed that models based on distance and contiguity in order to evaluate the spatial effects of accident data and the factors affecting it at the TAZ level have higher accuracy than geographic weighted regression models, as well as indicators of land use diversity and access to The public transportation system is effective and in TAZs where this index is high, there is a higher probability of an accident.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Environmental factors

urban accidents

spatial effect based on neighborhood

spatial effect based on distance matrix

spatial Bayes

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