مدل فراوانی و شدت تصادفات برون‌شهری با به‌کارگیری الگوی رگرسیون پواسون

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه تربیت مدرس تهران

2 تربیت مدرس

3 دانشگاه صنعتی خواجه نصیر الدین طوسی

چکیده

یکی از راهکارهای مهم شناسایی نقاط داری پتانسیل تصادف در جاده­ها، ممیزی ایمنی مسیر است. پس از شناسایی این نقاط می­توان برای آنها استراتژی‌های مناسبی درنظر گرفت تا فراوانی و شدت تصادفات کاهش یابد. در این پژوهش بااستفاده از ممیزی ایمنی مسیر مشکلات دسترسی‌ها،  روسازی، علائم، کنار جاده، طرح هندسی و تصادفات جرحی و فوتی قطعات راه‌های برون‌شهری شناسایی گردید و بااستفاده از این داده­ها الگوی ساخت مدل تصادفات در آنها ارائه گردید. در این مقاله محور همدان- کرمانشاه به‌عنوان مطالعه موردی انتخاب شد که در محور مذکور مدل رگرسیون پواسونی دارای اعتبار بیشتری بود و مشکلات آب‌روها و قوس قائم به‌ترتیب مهم‌ترین دلایل بروز تصادف فوتی و جرحی بودند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Poisson Regression Model of Frequency and Severity of Road Accidents in Rural Roads.

نویسندگان [English]

  • morteza asdamraji 1
  • seyedehsan seyedabrishami 2
  • Mahmoud Saffarzadeh 2
  • moin askari 3
1 Tarbiat Modares
2 Tarbiat Modares
3 K. N. Toosi University of Technology
چکیده [English]

One of the important ways of identifying road accident potentialities is road safety audits. After identifying these points, appropriate strategies to reduce the number and severity of accidents can be considered for them. In this study, using road safety audits, access, pavements, signs, roadside, and geometric problems and accidents leading to the deaths of outlying urban road sections were identified and using these data, the model of crashes in them Was presented. In this paper, the Hamadan-Kermanshah axis was chosen as a case study. In this axis, Poisson's regression model was more reliable and the problems of drainage ditches and vertical alignment were the most important reasons for the accident and resulted in death.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • "Safety Audit
  • Suburban road
  • Accident model

مراجع

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