The spatial effect of the contribution of land use types in the occurrence of accidents based on traffic area zones (Case study: Shiraz metropolis)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

mohammad sedigh bavar ¹

Ali Naderan ¹

Mahmoud Saffarzadeh ²

¹ Department of Civil Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

² Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

10.22067/jfcei.2023.80945.1214

Abstract

The type of land use in each traffic area zone (TAZ) is the most important factor determining the number of vehicles, geometric and traffic characteristics in that zone. Any factor in the urban environment that causes congestion and attraction of vehicles at certain times increases the probability of an accident in that area.In this study, in order to investigate the effect of the share of the types of uses in each of the traffic areas of Shiraz city on the probability of an accident, a two-step method including the identification of the types of uses influencing the occurrence of accidents as well as spatial effects between independent variables and accident data in space Kernel density estimate (KDE) methods have also been used in order to find the suitable bandwidth for searching observations, geographically weighted regression (GWR) and geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR) in order to investigate the spatial effects of the contribution of land use types on the occurrence Accident is used .The results of the study have shown that among the mentioned models, the local GWPR model has a better performance than the global Poisson model and the local GWR model based on validation criteria. Also, the presence of residential, commercial, barren and abandoned uses and the mixing of residential and non-residential use have the greatest impact on They have accidents. Examining the spatial effects of land use types in each of the traffic areas in this study can be very important in order to carry out safety measures.

Keywords

Land use

Accident

shiraz metropolis

Kernel Density Estimate

Geographical Weighing Poisson Regression

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